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Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.900x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.872x, across 468 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$50
Calibrated EV$51.11$50.96
Cash-out ratio0.900x0.872x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.022x1.019x
Median pull$43.60$42.30
Hit rate25.8%21.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.71x0.37x
Pulls indexed326142

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Pro Pack: 586 points from Jul 28 to Sep 20, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+6.0%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.02x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 579 points from Jul 29 to Sep 20, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+30.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.93x.

Basketball Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Pro Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Basketball Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.900x vs 0.872x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Pro Pack: 25.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 21.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.71x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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