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Basketball Pro Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.905x cash-out ratio against Basketball Pro Pack's 0.903x, across 518 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Pro PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$50
Calibrated EV$51.23$52.23
Cash-out ratio0.903x0.905x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.025x1.045x
Median pull$43.60$44.50
Hit rate25.9%33.2%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.71x0.50x
Pulls indexed325193

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Pro Pack: 585 points from Jul 28 to Sep 19, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+6.4%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.02x. Sports Pro Pack: 596 points from Jul 12 to Sep 19, starting at 0.74x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+22.8%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.04x.

Basketball Pro PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Pro Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Pro Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.905x vs 0.903x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Pro Pack: 25.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 33.2%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.71x vs 0.50x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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