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Basketball Platinum Pack vs Basketball Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.881x cash-out ratio against Basketball Platinum Pack's 0.861x, across 1,357 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Platinum PackBasketball Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$50
Calibrated EV$498.49$51.07
Cash-out ratio0.861x0.881x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.997x1.021x
Median pull$436.40$43.80
Hit rate30.3%29.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.34x0.52x
Pulls indexed891,268

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Platinum Pack: 1000 points from Aug 2 to Oct 29, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+10.2%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.97x. Basketball Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 2 to Oct 29, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+6.5%), ranging between 0.77x and 1.00x.

Basketball Platinum PackBasketball Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Platinum Pack vs Basketball Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Platinum Pack or Basketball Pro Pack?
Basketball Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.881x vs 0.861x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Platinum Pack: 30.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Pro Pack: 29.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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