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Basketball Platinum Pack vs Basketball Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.910x cash-out ratio against Basketball Platinum Pack's 0.902x, across 169 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Platinum PackBasketball Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$50
Calibrated EV$500.50$49.26
Cash-out ratio0.902x0.910x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.001x0.985x
Median pull$455.00$44.80
Hit rate23.1%27.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.16x0.43x
Pulls indexed13156

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Platinum Pack: 452 points from Jul 29 to Sep 10, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+13.5%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.90x. Basketball Pro Pack: 459 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 0.89x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+2.2%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.07x.

Basketball Platinum PackBasketball Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Platinum Pack vs Basketball Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Platinum Pack or Basketball Pro Pack?
Basketball Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.910x vs 0.902x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Platinum Pack: 23.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Pro Pack: 27.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.43x vs 0.16x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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