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Basketball Master Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.892x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.872x, across 336 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Master PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$104.70$50.96
Cash-out ratio0.892x0.872x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.047x1.019x
Median pull$86.95$42.30
Hit rate25.8%21.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.37x
Pulls indexed194142

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Master Pack: 597 points from Jul 12 to Sep 20, starting at 1.45x and ending at 0.89x, down overall (-38.4%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.45x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 579 points from Jul 29 to Sep 20, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+30.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.93x.

Basketball Master PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Master Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Master Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Basketball Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.892x vs 0.872x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Master Pack: 25.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 21.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.49x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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