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Basketball Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.867x cash-out ratio against Basketball Master Pack's 0.864x, across 1,679 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Master PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$101.08$50.61
Cash-out ratio0.864x0.867x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.011x1.012x
Median pull$87.00$44.15
Hit rate29.4%33.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.48x
Pulls indexed915764

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+11.5%), ranging between 0.75x and 1.00x. Sports Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.92x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-5.6%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.01x.

Basketball Master PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Master Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.867x vs 0.864x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Master Pack: 29.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 33.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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