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Basketball Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.927x cash-out ratio against Basketball Master Pack's 0.892x, across 403 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Master PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$104.70$53.61
Cash-out ratio0.892x0.927x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.047x1.072x
Median pull$86.95$44.80
Hit rate25.8%33.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.53x
Pulls indexed194209

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Master Pack: 602 points from Jul 12 to Sep 20, starting at 1.45x and ending at 0.89x, down overall (-38.4%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.45x. Sports Pro Pack: 602 points from Jul 12 to Sep 20, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+26.1%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.04x.

Basketball Master PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Master Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.927x vs 0.892x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Master Pack: 25.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 33.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.53x vs 0.49x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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