Basketball Master Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Basketball Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.864x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.791x, across 798 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Master Pack | Basketball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $100 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $101.60 | $233.15 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.864x | 0.791x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.016x | 0.933x |
| Median pull | $87.50 | $212.20 |
| Hit rate | 26.9% | 21.3% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.47x | 0.34x |
| Pulls indexed | 596 | 202 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Master Pack: 975 points from Jul 12 to Oct 23, starting at 1.45x and ending at 0.86x, down overall (-40.2%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.45x. Basketball Ultra Pack: 963 points from Jul 28 to Oct 23, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.79x, up overall (+12.7%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.09x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Master Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Master Pack or Basketball Ultra Pack?
- Basketball Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.864x vs 0.791x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Master Pack: 26.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Ultra Pack: 21.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Basketball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies