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Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 1.109x cash-out ratio against Sports Platinum Pack's 0.874x, across 99 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Diamond PackSports Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$1310.99$499.39
Cash-out ratio1.109x0.874x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.311x0.999x
Median pull$901.85$434.00
Hit rate40.0%34.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.61x0.35x
Pulls indexed5049

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 985 points from Aug 11 to Nov 4, starting at 0.67x and ending at 1.11x, up overall (+65.0%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.34x. Sports Platinum Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+24.1%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.23x.

Basketball Diamond PackSports Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Sports Platinum Pack?
Basketball Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.109x vs 0.874x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Diamond Pack: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Platinum Pack: 34.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.61x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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