Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Basketball Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.778x cash-out ratio against Basketball Diamond Pack's 0.745x, across 249 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Diamond Pack | Basketball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $1000 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $880.74 | $229.46 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.745x | 0.778x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.881x | 0.918x |
| Median pull | $837.80 | $210.60 |
| Hit rate | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.22x | 0.33x |
| Pulls indexed | 25 | 224 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 820 points from Aug 11 to Oct 26, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.74x, up overall (+10.9%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.97x. Basketball Ultra Pack: 992 points from Jul 28 to Oct 26, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.78x, up overall (+10.8%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.09x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Basketball Ultra Pack?
- Basketball Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.778x vs 0.745x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Diamond Pack: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Ultra Pack: 21.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Basketball Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.33x vs 0.22x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies