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Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.902x cash-out ratio against Basketball Diamond Pack's 0.766x, across 18 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Diamond PackBasketball Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$905.97$500.50
Cash-out ratio0.766x0.902x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.906x1.001x
Median pull$900.00$455.00
Hit rate0.0%23.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.05x0.16x
Pulls indexed513

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 286 points from Aug 11 to Sep 10, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.77x, up overall (+14.0%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.77x. Basketball Platinum Pack: 452 points from Jul 29 to Sep 10, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+13.5%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.90x.

Basketball Diamond PackBasketball Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Basketball Platinum Pack?
Basketball Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.902x vs 0.766x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Diamond Pack: 0.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Platinum Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.16x vs 0.05x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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