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Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.766x cash-out ratio against Basketball Master Pack's 0.757x, across 89 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Diamond PackBasketball Master Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$1000$100
Calibrated EV$905.97$89.46
Cash-out ratio0.766x0.757x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.906x0.895x
Median pull$900.00$88.05
Hit rate0.0%21.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.05x0.32x
Pulls indexed584

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 286 points from Aug 11 to Sep 10, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.77x, up overall (+14.0%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.77x. Basketball Master Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 1.59x and ending at 0.76x, down overall (-52.5%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.59x.

Basketball Diamond PackBasketball Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Diamond Pack vs Basketball Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Basketball Master Pack?
Basketball Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.766x vs 0.757x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Diamond Pack: 0.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Master Pack: 21.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.32x vs 0.05x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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