Baseball Ultra Pack vs Sports Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.919x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.808x, across 1,610 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Ultra Pack | Sports Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $250 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $238.81 | $25.71 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.808x | 0.919x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.955x | 1.028x |
| Median pull | $216.40 | $19.10 |
| Hit rate | 21.9% | 32.5% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.44x | 0.69x |
| Pulls indexed | 64 | 1,546 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Ultra Pack: 589 points from Aug 1 to Sep 23, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+2.9%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x. Sports Starter Pack: 634 points from Jul 18 to Sep 23, starting at 0.53x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+75.5%), ranging between 0.53x and 1.65x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Ultra Pack vs Sports Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Ultra Pack or Sports Starter Pack?
- Sports Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.919x vs 0.808x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Ultra Pack: 21.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Starter Pack: 32.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.69x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies