Baseball Starter Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Baseball Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.844x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.808x, across 609 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Starter Pack | Baseball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $25 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $24.20 | $238.81 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.844x | 0.808x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.968x | 0.955x |
| Median pull | $21.60 | $216.40 |
| Hit rate | 23.8% | 21.9% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.52x | 0.44x |
| Pulls indexed | 545 | 64 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Starter Pack: 622 points from Jul 28 to Sep 23, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.84x, up overall (+18.0%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.32x. Baseball Ultra Pack: 586 points from Aug 1 to Sep 23, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+2.9%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Starter Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Starter Pack or Baseball Ultra Pack?
- Baseball Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.844x vs 0.808x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Starter Pack: 23.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Baseball Ultra Pack: 21.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Baseball Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Starter Pack EV & verdict · Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies