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Baseball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.981x EV ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.980x, across 409 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$49.04$14.70
EV ratio0.981x0.980x
Cash-out EV ratio0.904x0.929x
Median pull$44.20$13.05
Hit rate36.8%16.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.38x
Pulls indexed19390

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Pro Pack: 204 points from Jul 3 to Aug 7, starting at 2.02x and ending at 0.98x, down overall (-51.3%), ranging between 0.98x and 2.06x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 204 points from Jul 3 to Aug 7, starting at 0.96x and ending at 0.98x, up overall (+1.8%), ranging between 0.89x and 1.28x.

Baseball Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Baseball Pro Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (0.981x vs 0.980x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Pro Pack: 36.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 16.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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