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Baseball Pro Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.915x cash-out ratio against Baseball Pro Pack's 0.880x, across 365 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Pro PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$50
Calibrated EV$51.08$52.74
Cash-out ratio0.880x0.915x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.022x1.055x
Median pull$43.45$44.50
Hit rate27.2%32.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.45x0.51x
Pulls indexed180185

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Pro Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 1.71x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-48.5%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.71x. Sports Pro Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.74x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+24.2%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.05x.

Baseball Pro PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Pro Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Pro Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.915x vs 0.880x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Pro Pack: 27.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 32.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.45x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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