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Baseball Platinum Pack vs Baseball Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.965x cash-out ratio against Baseball Pro Pack's 0.873x, across 328 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Platinum PackBaseball Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$50
Calibrated EV$570.21$51.06
Cash-out ratio0.965x0.873x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.140x1.021x
Median pull$414.50$43.70
Hit rate31.0%27.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.45x0.51x
Pulls indexed29299

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Platinum Pack: 588 points from Aug 1 to Sep 23, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+52.0%), ranging between 0.64x and 0.96x. Baseball Pro Pack: 633 points from Jul 12 to Sep 23, starting at 1.70x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-48.6%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.70x.

Baseball Platinum PackBaseball Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Platinum Pack vs Baseball Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Platinum Pack or Baseball Pro Pack?
Baseball Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.965x vs 0.873x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Platinum Pack: 31.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Baseball Pro Pack: 27.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.45x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Baseball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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