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Baseball Master Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.048x cash-out ratio against Baseball Master Pack's 0.891x, across 132 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Master PackSports Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$104.79$601.35
Cash-out ratio0.891x1.048x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.048x1.203x
Median pull$86.10$412.30
Hit rate27.3%27.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.50x
Pulls indexed12111

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Master Pack: 601 points from Jul 12 to Sep 20, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.89x, up overall (+32.6%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.29x. Sports Platinum Pack: 446 points from Aug 8 to Sep 20, starting at 0.70x and ending at 1.05x, up overall (+49.5%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.05x.

Baseball Master PackSports Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Master Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Master Pack or Sports Platinum Pack?
Sports Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.048x vs 0.891x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Master Pack: 27.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Platinum Pack: 27.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.50x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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