Baseball Master Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Baseball Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.862x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.776x, across 519 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Master Pack | Baseball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $100 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $101.33 | $229.36 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.862x | 0.776x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.013x | 0.917x |
| Median pull | $85.75 | $214.00 |
| Hit rate | 30.3% | 23.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.47x | 0.39x |
| Pulls indexed | 402 | 117 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Master Pack: 994 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+28.3%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.29x. Baseball Ultra Pack: 947 points from Aug 1 to Oct 25, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.78x, down overall (-1.1%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Master Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Master Pack or Baseball Ultra Pack?
- Baseball Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.862x vs 0.776x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Master Pack: 30.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Baseball Ultra Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Baseball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Master Pack EV & verdict · Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies