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Baseball Diamond Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.048x cash-out ratio against Baseball Diamond Pack's 1.014x, across 21 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Diamond PackSports Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$1198.54$601.35
Cash-out ratio1.014x1.048x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.199x1.203x
Median pull$888.90$412.30
Hit rate40.0%27.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.30x0.50x
Pulls indexed1011

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Diamond Pack: 395 points from Aug 13 to Sep 19, starting at 0.63x and ending at 1.01x, up overall (+61.2%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.16x. Sports Platinum Pack: 439 points from Aug 8 to Sep 19, starting at 0.70x and ending at 1.05x, up overall (+49.5%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.05x.

Baseball Diamond PackSports Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Diamond Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Diamond Pack or Sports Platinum Pack?
Sports Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.048x vs 1.014x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Diamond Pack: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Platinum Pack: 27.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.30x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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