Baseball Diamond Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Baseball Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.831x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.815x, across 138 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Diamond Pack | Baseball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $1000 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $982.82 | $240.95 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.831x | 0.815x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.983x | 0.964x |
| Median pull | $848.85 | $214.40 |
| Hit rate | 38.5% | 24.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.41x | 0.39x |
| Pulls indexed | 26 | 112 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Diamond Pack: 780 points from Aug 13 to Oct 24, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+32.1%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.39x. Baseball Ultra Pack: 932 points from Aug 1 to Oct 24, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+3.8%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Diamond Pack vs Baseball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Diamond Pack or Baseball Ultra Pack?
- Baseball Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.831x vs 0.815x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Diamond Pack: 38.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Baseball Ultra Pack: 24.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Baseball Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.41x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies