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Baseball Diamond Pack vs Baseball Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.804x cash-out ratio against Baseball Platinum Pack's 0.786x, across 16 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Diamond PackBaseball Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$950.20$464.80
Cash-out ratio0.804x0.786x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.950x0.930x
Median pull$851.30$392.00
Hit rate33.3%28.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.28x0.19x
Pulls indexed97

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Diamond Pack: 271 points from Aug 13 to Sep 10, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+27.8%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.16x. Baseball Platinum Pack: 425 points from Aug 1 to Sep 10, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.79x, up overall (+23.8%), ranging between 0.64x and 0.87x.

Baseball Diamond PackBaseball Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Diamond Pack vs Baseball Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Diamond Pack or Baseball Platinum Pack?
Baseball Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.804x vs 0.786x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Diamond Pack: 33.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Baseball Platinum Pack: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.28x vs 0.19x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Baseball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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