Guide

The Complete Guide to Courtyard.io Pack Expected Value (EV) in 2026

Everything you need to know about calculating and using Expected Value to make profitable mystery pack decisions on Courtyard.io.

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value is a statistical concept that tells you, on average, how much value you can expect to receive from a mystery pack purchase. It's the single most important metric for determining whether a pack is worth buying.

Definition: EV = (Sum of all card values from recent pulls) ÷ (Number of pulls)

What is EV Ratio?

The EV Ratio puts the Expected Value in context by comparing it to the pack price:

Formula: EV Ratio = Expected Value ÷ Pack Price

Interpretation:

**Ratio > 1.0** → +EV (Profitable) → **BUY**

**Ratio 0.85–1.0** → Neutral → **HOLD**

**Ratio < 0.85** → -EV (Losing money) → **AVOID**

How We Calculate EV at PullValue.io

1. We monitor Courtyard.io's public API in real-time

2. Every time someone opens a pack, we record the card's Fair Market Value (FMV)

3. We calculate the average FMV across all recent pulls for each pack type

4. We divide by the pack price to get the EV Ratio

5. We update every 60 seconds

What is Calibrated EV?

Calibrated EV uses buyback prices instead of FMV estimates. Courtyard offers to buy back every card at a guaranteed price (minus a 6% platform fee).

Formula: Calibrated EV = Average (Buyback Price × 0.94) ÷ Pack Price

This gives you a guaranteed floor — the minimum you can expect if you sell every card back immediately.

Win Rate vs EV Ratio

These are different metrics:

**EV Ratio** tells you the average return

**Win Rate** tells you the probability of pulling a card worth more than the pack price

A pack can have a positive EV ratio but a low win rate. This happens when rare cards with very high values pull the average up, even though most pulls are below the pack price.

FAQ

Q: Is EV guaranteed?

A: No. EV is a statistical average. Individual results will vary. You need volume for the math to play out.

Q: How many pulls for reliable EV?

A: We recommend at least 50 pulls for a statistically meaningful sample size.

Q: Does EV change over time?

A: Yes. As the card pool changes and market prices fluctuate, EV shifts. That's why we update every 60 seconds.

Q: Should I only buy +EV packs?

A: From a pure financial perspective, yes. But mystery packs are also entertainment. Set a budget and enjoy responsibly.