Education
What is Expected Value (EV) in Mystery Packs?
Learn how EV calculations work and why they're essential for making smart mystery pack purchases on Courtyard.io.
2026-03-155 min read
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that tells you the average outcome you can expect from a random event. In the context of mystery packs on Courtyard.io, EV represents the average value of a card you'll pull from a given pack.The Simple Formula
EV = Σ (Value of each possible pull × Probability of pulling it)
EV Ratio = Average Pull Value / Pack Price
- EV Ratio > 1.0 → You're expected to PROFIT (positive EV)
- EV Ratio = 1.0 → Break even
- EV Ratio < 1.0 → You're expected to LOSE money (negative EV)
Why Does EV Matter?
Most mystery pack buyers rely on luck and excitement. Smart buyers use data. Here's why:
1. Not All Packs Are Created Equal
Some packs on Courtyard.io consistently return more value than they cost. Others are money pits. Without EV data, you're gambling blind.2. Long-Run vs. Short-Run
You might get lucky on a single open. But over 10, 50, or 100 opens, math wins. A pack with 1.5x EV will, on average, return $150 for every $100 spent.3. Win Rate Matters Too
A pack might have a high average EV but a low win rate — meaning a few rare expensive pulls inflate the average. Always check both metrics.How PullValue.io Calculates EV
We track every single pull from Courtyard.io's vending machine in real-time:
- Scrape — We fetch pull data from Courtyard's API every 15 seconds
- FMV Lookup — Each card's Fair Market Value is tracked
- Buyback Price — We also track Courtyard's guaranteed buyback price
- EV Calculation — We compute both FMV-based and Buyback-based EV ratios
- Win Rate — The percentage of pulls worth more than the pack price
Key Takeaways
- Always check the EV ratio before buying a pack
- Look at sample size — more data = more reliable EV
- Consider the win rate — a 30% win rate means 70% of opens will lose money
- Use buyback EV for guaranteed returns (floor protection)
- Monitor trends — EV changes as new pulls happen
Ready to start making data-driven pack decisions? Check the live dashboard →